Nobody Controls Risk in an Index

Feb 20, 2024

There has been much chatter over the past couple of weeks about the rise of passive investing distorting the market, increased concentration and resulting in less price discovery – I would certainly encourage folks to listen to the Masters in Business February 8 podcast with David Einhorn with the caveat that his views are certainly at one end of the spectrum, albeit with some rather compelling points. The steady redemptions over the years from active managers and reallocation to passive have created more steady selling pressure in strategies that focus on value or fundamentals. Meanwhile, increased flows to passive are resulting in more of a momentum trade. Passive index strategies never met a PE ratio they didn’t like.

We don’t believe this has broken the market but would certainly concede it has made markets a lot more risky. You have likely read reports highlighting the concentration risk in the S&P 500, driven by the Magnificent 7 (or whichever moniker they are going by today). Today, these few names comprise about 30% of the largest equity market in the world. And over the past year, with the S&P 500 up 18.6%, 9.1% of this rise is attributed to those 7 names. Safe to say the S&P 500 is rather concentrated, and leadership is rather narrow. 

In fact, this concentration, coupled with US equity market outperformance over the past decade, has really distorted even the global equity markets. If someone were to buy a capitalization-weighted index capturing all equities traded in developed markets, that does sound like it would be well diversified. Sadly no. The Bloomberg Developed Market index currently carries a 70% in US equities. Clearly, my old rule of thumb that global markets were 50-55% US, 30% Europe, and the rest spread out is antiquated.  

Equally incredible – Nvidia is now roughly the same weight as Canada. Microsoft and Apple are roughly the same weight as all of Asia. This naturally leads to thinking this is tech bubble 2.0, referring to tech bubble 1.0 as the 1990s internet bubble. Concentration is similar, the US equity weight globally was also similar and performance being driven by a narrow handful of names is similar. However, the 1990s was dominated by telecom equipment names, the builders of the internet backbone. This was much more narrow than today. Simplifying each company’s many business lines, Apple is a device maker, Microsoft is software/cloud, Nvidia is a semiconductor maker, Amazon is a fulfillment/cloud company, while Google and Meta sell digital ads. It is a more diverse business than the 90s tech bubble leaders.


And let’s not forget, these companies have earnings, material earnings at that. Across the Mag 7, they have trailing pretax income of over $400 billion. That is a far cry from valuations in the late 1990s when new valuation metrics such as price to eyeballs were being bantered around given a lack of actual earnings.


In fact, today’s market probably has more similarities to the nifty 50 than the 1990s tech bubble. For those not familiar, the nifty 50 was a bubble in high-growth stocks that ran from the late 1960s to the early 1970s. It was a decade led by growth over value (similar to today), and the growth names became dominant in the index as they grew faster over time (again, similar to today). The names in the nifty 50 were pretty diverse, including General Electric, IBM, Coca-Cola, Xerox and, of course, Avon Products & Polaroid.


The nifty 50 were called one-way stocks; you just had to own them, and valuations didn’t matter. Furthermore, portfolio managers had to own them to keep up with the index. Sound familiar? Today, there are more and more managers altering their strategies to incorporate some Nvidia or Amazon, simply trying to keep up with the index. And there is a cohort that believes these companies are recession-proof, given their handling of the 2020 pandemic-induced recession and strong balance sheets. We believe that view is misguided, and the pandemic recession was a unique confluence of events that hopefully won’t happen again during our investment lives.


So what ended the fifty 50 era? Two things: inflation and a recession. This combination dispelled investor’s view that these companies had such great prospects they had become immune to the business cycle. Given the high concentrated weight in the index of those growth names, it led to a seven-year drought without the index making a new high. Rather similar to the drought of new highs following the tech bubble of the late 1990s.  

We like both active and passive strategies, really depending on the market and the desired exposure. Still, it’s imperative to know the underlying exposures in both active and passive strategies. Most passive strategies, often in ETF form, are tracking market capitalization-weighted indices. That means whatever trades on the market or sits in that index carries a weight, given the size of the company. There is no committee that says the S&P 500 has too much technology (29%) or too little energy (4%). Or for the TSX with 31% financials and 0.3% health care. Nobody controls the risk in an index, which is why it remains important to understand the exposures and how they combine with the rest of a portfolio. Hence, if you want more international exposure, the World Index is not the answer. 

Final Thoughts


This does have the characteristics of a bubble. The unknown is whether it has a few years to go before peaking, or a few months or only days. One could easily argue that the nifty 50 and tech bubble ended simply because they went too far. Expectations had become so high that any stumble would have a significant blowback on the share prices. Recession simply causes more companies to stumble around at the same time, even if in different industries. 



Whenever it does end, there is likely going to be a long hangover. 

— Craig Basinger is the Chief Market Strategist at Purpose Investments

Source: Charts are sourced to Bloomberg L.P. and Purpose Investments Inc.


The contents of this publication were researched, written and produced by Purpose Investments Inc. and are used by Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. for information purposes only.


This report is authored by Craig Basinger, Chief Market Strategist, Purpose Investments Inc.


Disclaimers
Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. 
The opinions expressed in this report are the opinions of the author and readers should not assume they reflect the opinions or recommendations of Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. or its affiliates. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author's judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. We do not warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The comments contained herein are general in nature and are not intended to be, nor should be construed to be, legal or tax advice to any particular individual. Accordingly, individuals should consult their own legal or tax advisors for advice with respect to the tax consequences to them.
Purpose Investments Inc. 
Purpose Investments Inc. is a registered securities entity. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with investment funds. Please read the prospectus before investing. If the securities are purchased or sold on a stock exchange, you may pay more or receive less than the current net asset value. Investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. 
Forward Looking Statements
Forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts and projections based on beliefs and assumptions made by author. These statements involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements. Assumptions, opinions and estimates constitute the author’s judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Neither Purpose Investments nor Echelon Partners warrant the completeness or accuracy of this material, and it should not be relied upon as such. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. These estimates and expectations involve risks and uncertainties and are not guarantees of future performance or results and no assurance can be given that these estimates and expectations will prove to have been correct, and actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed, implied or projected in such forward-looking statements. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed, that there is any intention or obligation to  update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Before acting on any recommendation, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. 
The particulars contained herein were obtained from sources which we believe are reliable, but are not guaranteed by us and may be incomplete. This is not an official publication or research report of either Echelon Partners or Purpose Investments, and this is not to be used as a solicitation in any jurisdiction. 
This document is not for public distribution, is for informational purposes only, and is not being delivered to you in the context of an offering of any securities, nor is it a recommendation or solicitation to buy, hold or sell any security.

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Ventum Financial Corp. and Echelon Wealth Partners Complete Amalgamation

24 Jun, 2024
VANCOUVER, BC, and TORONTO, ON, June 24, 2024 – Ventum Financial Corp. (“Ventum” – formerly PI Financial Corp.) is pleased to announce the successful completion of its amalgamation with Echelon Wealth Partners Inc. (“Echelon”), marking a significant milestone that solidifies its position as a leading independent investment advisory, wealth management, and capital markets firm in Canada. David Cusson, former CEO of Echelon, has assumed the role of CEO of Ventum. Jean-Paul Bachellerie, former CEO of Ventum, has assumed the role of President and COO of Ventum. This strategic alignment of leadership combines the expertise and vision of both firms to enhance client service and operational efficiency. “With offices across Canada, and strong anchors in the east and west, we are well positioned to deliver comprehensive financial solutions tailored to meet the diverse needs of our clients,” said David Cusson, CEO of Ventum. “This amalgamation represents a significant step forward in our commitment to excellence and towards becoming the leading independent investment dealer in Canada.” “Our combined Private Client Services and Capital Markets teams provide us with the scale needed for future success, enabling continuous investment in our platform and the provision of leading-edge tools and technology for our advisory teams,” said Jean-Paul Bachellerie, President & COO of Ventum. For more information about Ventum, please visit our website at ventumfinancial.com. About Ventum Financial Corp. Ventum Financial Corp. is headquartered in Toronto, ON with key operational functions in Vancouver, BC, and is a leading independent investment advisory and capital markets firm with fifteen offices across Canada. With a steadfast commitment to integrity and client service, Ventum provides a wide array of financial services to individual, institutional, and corporate clients through our team of experienced professionals. Media Contact: David Cusson CEO Ventum Financial Corp. Email: media@ventumfinancial.com Phone: (416) 572-5523

Is it over?

By Website Editor • 17 Jun, 2024
It seems like just yesterday that you could buy a pint of Stella for $7 or so. Now, more often than not, it is closer to $10. Yep, inflation. It is kind of like a tax on doing things, as just about everything has cost more over the past few years. Hop on a flight, eat at a nice restaurant, refinance your mortgage, the list goes on. With the benefit of hindsight, the current higher inflationary environment can be blamed on a few pretty big factors. Changes in behaviour during and coming out of the pandemic blew up supply changes, as capacity was unable to keep pace with demand. Then, of course, unprecedented money printing magnified the situation, as it made everyone wealthier and more willing to pay $10 for a pint. Of course, the textbook solution is to raise interest rates, which is clearly occurring around the world. These monetary policy shifts are effective but do work with variable lags. Making those lags longer, or even temporally offsetting them, was fiscal policy. It doesn’t take an economist to understand if the monetary policy is trying to slow the economy to tame inflation; materially elevated fiscal spending in an economy that is still growing at a decent pace is counterproductive for the inflation fight.

This Ain't That

By Website Editor • 03 Jun, 2024
The US market is up a little over 10% this year, Canada +6%, Europe +10%, and Japan +15%, while bonds are down about -1%. Huh, that sure does look like asset allocation is working well again after the car crash of 2022. Even better news is that the market is moving higher thanks to good fundamental news, not simply because central bankers are jamming more money into the financial system. Recession risk has continued to fade, as evidenced by the survey of economists. For the UK, Canada, US, Eurozone, China & Japan, the average probability of a recession hit a high in late 2022 at about 60% and has fallen down to a mere 25% of late. The UK, which was as high as 90% and suffered two negative quarters of GDP growth, is now down to 30%, winning the most improved ribbon. Even Canada, which is clearly struggling with higher rates, has improved from over 60% to 30%. Most are clustered around the 30% zone.

The Calm Before the Calm

By Website Editor • 28 May, 2024
Should it be any surprise how calm markets have become? Global equities are up 9.2% year to date. Apart from a 2% decline in January and a 5% drop in April, the trend has been steadily up to the right on the chart. We can easily slap a financial narrative on this, such as improving economic growth globally, a decent Q1 earnings season, or maybe it's just the AI frenzy. More than a third of the advances in global equities are attributed to Nvidia, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet. Whatever the cause, equity volatility has been very calm so far in 2024. But it is more than this, as it isn’t just equities.  The volatility in the bond market has gone super low (2nd panel in chart). The MOVE index measures volatility in U.S. Treasury Bonds [actually at-the-money options on interest rate swaps, but let’s not go down that rabbit hole]. Even though bond yields moved higher this year, the 10-year started at 4%, gradually up to 4.75%, then back down to 4.5%; these moves pale in comparison to the last couple of years. In case you forgot, the same bond in 2022 went from 1.5% to 4.0% and in 2023, yields oscillated between 3.5 to 5.0%. Looking beyond Treasuries, credit spreads are back down to or close to historical lows. Investment Grade spreads in the U.S. are 50bps. Lows in past mini-credit cycles have been 40-60bps.

More Bad News S'Il Vous Plaît

By Website Editor • 21 May, 2024
I think we might be in that very unique market mood when bad news is good news. The equity market weakness in April can probably be attributed to bond yields moving higher, so any economic data on the weaker growth side is welcome news at the moment. The S&P started to recover on May 3rd, rising 1.3% when the ever-important non-farm payroll labour report came in softer than expected, helping 10-year yields fall back down to 4.5%. Then, over the past few weeks, we have seen generally weaker economic data for the ever-important U.S. economy; bond yields have continued to come down, and equity prices have moved up. Of course, all eyes were on the U.S. inflation print for April, which was marginally softer than expected (soft CPI is truly good news), helping bond yields fall and pushing the S&P 500 to a new all-time high. But really, 0.3% vs. expectations of 0.4% is not huge, especially given that the core reading was in line at 0.3%. This still has the annualized 3-month change running a hot 4.5%. To be fair, there was some good news beneath the surface on the CPI print. But on that day, helping, and less talked about, was a really weak Empire manufacturing survey and weak retail sales.

Is It Time for Emerging Markets

By Website Editor • 13 May, 2024
The normal narrative for encouraging investors to look at emerging markets typically goes like this: The valuations are cheap, the demographics/rising incomes are supportive of growth, and they offer diversification. Perhaps this is more the marketing narrative. Kind of how, like for infrastructure strategies, they always talk about how many bridges need repairing. We are not refuting any of the above reasons, as they have been rather perennial for many, many years. And yet, for those who know us, we have been rather negative or at least cool on emerging markets for a long time. How long? Well, this negative view persisted for well over a decade. This is us giving ourselves a pat on the back since Emerging Markets (EM) have done roughly nothing for the past 12 years as Developed Markets (DM) have charged higher (chart).

Lots of Bulls & Bears

By Website Editor • 06 May, 2024
Take your pick. There is no shortage of both good and bad news floating about the financial markets. To be fair, this is always the case. The hard part is understanding which side is stronger today and which side will be stronger tomorrow. With markets up low to mid-single digits following a very strong Q4 finish to 2023, most would agree the optimists are carrying the day at the moment. It is not just rose-coloured glasses; there is good news out there. Economic growth signs or momentum appear to be improving year-to-date. Dial back a few quarters, and the U.S. economy remained resilient while other economies softened or were rather lacklustre, including Canada, Europe, Japan, and China, to highlight some of the biggies. Today, while Canada is struggling, momentum in the U.S. has moved even higher, and there are signs of improvement in most jurisdictions.

Earnings Optimism

By Website Editor • 29 Apr, 2024
There are three things you should rarely ever bet against: the Leaf’s opposing team in the playoffs, the American consumer’s ability to spend, and corporate profits. As we are now about halfway through U.S. earnings season, once again, positive surprises remain the norm; 81% have beaten. It's a bit better than the 20-year average of 75%. The fact is that companies are good at managing analysts’ expectations. At least enough to beat them when the numbers hit the tape. The size of the positive surprises have been encouraging as well, at just under 10%. The highest surprise magnitude in some time.  One of our reservations on the sustainability of this market rally over the past couple of quarters has been the flat earnings revisions. In other words, global markets are up over 20% but earnings estimates have remained flat or tilted down slightly. More often than not, markets trend in the same direction as earnings revisions. Earnings get revised up when companies raise guidance and/or analysts become more encouraged about growth prospects. That is a good thing for markets. Obviously, downward revisions are bad. Yet estimates have remained very flat as markets marched higher, a challenging combination.

Energy Stars Align

By Website Editor • 22 Apr, 2024
The oil market has been interesting lately and, to the surprise of many, has been the biggest silent outperformer this year. There is no shortage of geopolitical events to choose from that’s leading to a higher risk premium in oil with Brent breaking $90, whether it’s the Houthis missile attacks in the Red Sea leading to a massive re-route of trade, Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian refineries, and the latest escalation between Israel and Iran leading to some news outlets using WWIII as click bait-y headlines. Given the run-up in oil prices, Canadian oil equities have clearly benefitted from the much higher torque. But there is a layer of even better news: The Transmountain Expansion (TMX) continues to look to be in operation by May, which would lead to much better pricing on the Western Canadian Select (WCS). With the current setup for the oil markets, some key questions that we often get from investors are: How sustainable is the rally in Canadian energy names? To determine if the oil equities are overstretched, we can look at the debt-adjusted cash flow (DACF) multiples of the major integrated oil names and see how the valuation has shifted in light of the recent oil move. From Exhibit 1, the DACF multiples for the Canadian integrated have been fairly range-bound over the last year, also in line with WTI, which has been in the $70 - $85 range. As a starting point, we can infer that the valuations of the companies have been commensurate with the movements in the underlying oil price deck and in line with where the equities should trade in the cycle historically over the last couple of years. Typically, in the commodities cycle, higher prices are usually coupled with lower multiples as market participants will usually price in lower normalized prices and vice versa, so a cause of concern would be if valuation starts trending towards the 6.5x – 7.0x+ area if oil prices continue to stay in the upper bounds of the $70 - $90 range or higher.

Your Money & Your Heirs: What’s Your Plan for Wealth Longevity?

By Website Editor • 17 Apr, 2024
As part of your wealth planning, have you considered your wealth’s longevity? Many of us have heard of the “shirtsleeves curse”: Family wealth is often built up and lost within three generations. You may not be surprised to learn that recipients often make “big” purchases within the first few weeks of receiving their inheritance. This is because many heirs are not focused on the longevity of new-found wealth. What are high-net-worth families doing to help prevent this loss? There has been an increasing focus on intergenerational wealth planning, with the objective of supporting wealth longevity. This involves getting existing generations to meet about their finances and form shared financial goals and values to help encourage lasting wealth. Here are some steps that can be taken as part of this planning process: Start with a plan and document it Start by thinking about your vision for your wealth for the generations to come. The plan should set out goals and provisions for how you wish funds to be used, accessed and replenished. For instance, you may wish for family members to invest in themselves to gain the experience needed to create and grow wealth, using funds for higher education or a business start-up or expansion. Others may wish to leave endowments to a charity. Once you determine your goals and provisions, it is important to formally record them as this document will be passed along to future generations. Communicate your plan Once the plan has been documented, it should be communicated to family members. Often, parents keep their finances and related values to themselves, missing the opportunity to pass along their ideals to children. While specific financial details need not be disclosed, sharing your vision is intended to be a catalyst for meaningful discussions. Some families use this plan to form a family constitution to help future generations carry forward their intentions. Engage in regular meetings Regular family meetings are intended to help cultivate family values based on your vision for your wealth. If wealth has been carefully built up through the generations, it may involve exploring family history. Or, you may use this time to educate children about finances and managing money or introduce high-level strategies to carry out the intergenerational plan relating to running a family business or a family giving strategy. Consider protection tools You may determine through family meetings that beneficiaries will need support. Certain tools can support beneficiaries to meet your goals, or protect future wealth in situations in which beneficiaries may not be capable. For example, a trust can put assets under the control of a responsible trustee, with the terms of the trust specifying the conditions, timing and amount of distributions to be made to heirs. Other tools, such as life insurance, can protect and grow assets while also providing access to cash. Setting up a support system of trusted professionals may help to ensure a successful wealth transfer, especially if heirs do not have the skills to manage funds independently. Monitor the plan’s success By having an ongoing dialogue with family members, you will be able to identify and address any gaps or concerns as they arise. You can also continue to define and refine family roles to ensure that your plan has a greater chance of success. Here to Provide Support While intergenerational wealth planning may not be for everyone, consider that creating a lasting legacy can be one of the greatest gifts you leave behind. If you need assistance with family discussions or educational tools to support children, please contact your Echelon Advisor.
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